Apple just says no to Google, Google Voice apps

iPhone users seem to have been the biggest fans of Google Voice so far. But on Tuesday Apple took a big step back from Google Voice. They made two big moves:

1. Apple rejected the Google Voice dialer app from Google, keeping it from the App Store. Google has not indicated that they will make it available for the minority of iPhones that are pwned (“jailbroken”), so all iPhone users are deprived of the app.
2. Apple pulled the three Google Voice apps that were already on the App Store:  GV Mobile, VoiceCentral and GVdialer.  (The last one, GVdialer, has somehow contrived to be both multi-platform and little-known; press reports regularly cite two, not three, Google Voice dialers for iPhone.)

There is now a nearly perfect Google app for Android (about 1M users) and a very good Google ap for BlackBerry (about 30M users); both are free. There is now no Google Voice app from Google nor from third parties. The only option for iPhone users (about 40M) is to use the Google Voice mobile Web site or to call their voice mailbox to place calls, neither of which is nearly as good an option.

Who are the winners and losers from these moves? I think the three winners are:

• Google Voice. Yes, Google Voice adoption will be slowed, and usage lessened, on the iPhone for now. But Google can improve the mobile Web site, as they’ve done for Gmail. More importantly, the publicity and the reflection on GV’s importance from Apple’s move are invaluable. Every player in the cell phone world, and every user, has to take Google Voice into account in their plans from here. As any salesperson knows, consideration is a prerequisite for adoption.
• BlackBerry. BlackBerry is a good choice vs. the iPhone today, and expected to improve further, with new touchscreen models rumored to be on the way. Having an edge with Google Voice helps both in pure usefulness and also in the “cool factor” that has recently eluded RIM. BlackBerry will also benefit from IT departments perhaps being more willing to allow or even encourage Google Voice usage, now that its money-saving capabilities have been so dramatically highlighted.
• Android. Android may now have its raison d’etre; BlackBerry led the way with e-mail, the iPhone with mobile Web browsing, and now people may come to see Android’s leading feature as Google Voice integration. Google’s more open approach to application developers becomes a bigger plus as well.

There are also three big losers:

• Apple. Apple has given itself a big black eye. Rejecting the Google app hurts customers and Google, but pulling the three third-party apps that had previously been approved is particularly cruel and unfair. It hurts customers who had paid money as well as all iPhone users, who were potential future customers. The move also shines a harsh light on Apple’s tight and less than entirely ept management of the App Store, which is now less of an asset for Apple, and for iPhone users, than it had been.
• AT&T. AT&T is widely blamed for Apple’s move, seen as protecting its lucrative text message plans and expensive overseas calls by iPhone users and trying to head off the development of Google Voice as a competing platform. Of course, many iPhone users already more or less disliked AT&T; a shift to more intense dislike or actual hatred may not make much short-term difference.
• Google. The plus for Android doesn’t entirely offset pain elsewhere. The Apple/Google partnership that had so benefited both companies is now seriously strained. Many directions of possible growth for both companies are impaired by Apple’s bigfooting Google on an important emerging service.

What’s next? I think Apple may have to back down on GV Mobile, Voice Central and GVdialer. The move is just too Big Brother-esque in its effect on developers and users. As such, it damages three of Apple’s four key brand(s) – the App Store, iPhone and Apple itself – too much.

I doubt Apple will change tack on the Google app for GV as it’s just too good, being, official, highly functional, and free. Also, no one’s going to feel too sorry for Google in being rejected. But the third-party developers whose apps were pulled after the fact are just innocent victims. Companies that treat partners so badly, so publicly, lose a great deal by doing so. Apple may well try to recoup some of the damage by reversing itself. A logical time to do this is whenever AT&T loses its exclusivity on iPhone, thus neatly shifting the blame.

If it wasn’t before, Google Voice is now shown to be a crucial factor in decision-making for cell phone users, big buyers such as IT departments, and competitors. The resulting competitive pressure is likely to help all phone users, and in particular Google Voice users, for years to come.