Here is a good brief analysis of Google Voice’s likely impact on the existing telecomms industry. It describes how a raft of companies that had recently begun to get traction selling “point of presence” applications are threatened.
Key quote:
“How will companies formerly selling point of presence applications survive, when you can get 95% of the features they offer, for 100% less cost?”
The article points out that some burden shifts to users:
“…while end-users will have to suffer minor learning curves and possible feature shortages in the early versions, we all can see with our own eyes that Google has created a great SaaS platform…”
Then points to some of the people who’d better watch out:
“While other firms like Vonnage, Skype and a host of others have tip-toed into that space, none had the market clout, devoted developer base, and the goodwill of so much open architecture to drive market penetration at such a rocket-like rate which Google can muster.
I would not want to be an application software developer in the way of this speeding train… so you better find a way to get on it before it runs you over!”
We’re all curious to see if market penetration really goes at a rocket-like rate!
By comparison, it took Gmail four years to get to 50 million users – and it’s now rocketed upward to 100 million in just the last year. Google Voice requires more of a change in people’s habits than Gmail does, but then, the benefits - most eye-catching, the huge savings on international calls, especially compared to calls made directly from a mobile - are more compelling too.
My own guess is that the numbers will be lower – I see it as unlikely that Google Voice will have more than 100 million users in five years – but still impressive. Adding a million users a year for five years, with disproportionate impact among US smartphone users (including perhaps the majority of US journalists, bloggers and other trend-setters), would be enough for Google Voice to be off to a very good start indeed.
I would like to read more